Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry
24 August, 1993

Dear Severus,

          I'm glad August is about to end and soon you'll be restored to our warmer season; I don't believe the freezing weather and the snowy landscapes are doing you good. The tone of your letter surprised me, I don't remember seeing you this gloomy since Charlie Weasley was playing for Gryffindor.

          Is it your honest opinion that I have become such a stubborn, inflexible old man, deaf to other people's advice, who won't sway his mind once it has been made up? My friend, would I bother Fawkes into crossing the Atlantic to discuss our present situation with you if your thoughts on this matter didn't matter to me?

          Thank you for accepting the task of preparing the Wolfsbane Potion despite all your reservations. But as much as I agree that there is some danger in this plan, I wonder how this potion could possibly bring any benefit if given to isolated subjects, as you suggest. After all, in the words of Mr Gyunnum himself, 'the main purpose of the Lupi Contra Mentem is to start providing the means to reintroduce the victims of lycanthropy into our society'. As far as I know, it doesn't alleviate the pain of Transformations, only allows the patient to remain lucid, numbing the wolf's aggressive mind. Or am I mistaken?

          I did have, as a matter of fact, the opportunity to learn underwater brawling from a grindylow, ages ago, when I was still young and believed well-shaped muscles would be enough to attract all the prettiest girls at school. It was highly instructive, actually. But that's hardly important now.

          Much has happened since my last letter to you. The Minister of Magic and I failed to achieve a proper agreement, so each of us will be enforcing most of our authority in our respective jurisdictions. Dementors will be stationed at the gates and around the perimeter, but they won't be permitted on Hogwarts grounds, let alone inside the castle.

          Remus Lupin, after long hours of coaxing and countless cups of delicious tea, has agreed to teach Defence Against Dark Arts this year. Since we have a full moon next Sunday, he won't be able to arrive at Hogwarts before September the 1st, so we agreed that it would be best if he took the train from London along with the students. Minister Fudge suspects Black might try to sneak into the cars and attack young Potter before he gets here. In any case, we'd better have an adult in the train to look out for the children and protect them from both Black and the Ministry security.

          Considering that Black might very well be hiding among Muggles and that twelve of his victims a decade ago were Muggles, Fudge judged it necessary to inform the Prime Minister of the situation, and now the entire population of Britain has been alerted that a dangerous murderer is lurking by. In due course, last week Black was seen in Surrey, about 15 miles away from Lily Potter's sister's residence, by a pair of Muggle law enforcers. They tried to chase him but he 'turned around the corner and puff!!! vanished as if he's never been there'. Mr Fudge is now convinced that Black has taken possession of a wand somehow and is using it to Disapparate; with all due respect to our Minister, I think he's possibly being hasty in his assumptions. Despite what the Muggle press has been announcing, we don't know if he's armed or not.

          Harry Potter ran away from his foster home last Wednesday, after blowing up his uncle's sister with an involuntary inflating spell. Even before I could dispatch anyone to pick him up, Miss Hopkirk from the Improper Use of Magic Office signalled Mr Fudge at once, and the Accidental Magic Reverse Squad was sent to heal the lady and obliviate her memory. Young Potter took the Knight Bus safely and was intercepted by the Minister himself at Diagon Alley. He won't be charged with violation of the Decree for the Reasonable Restriction of Underage Sorcery, since we have no hope of protecting him if he's expelled from Hogwarts at this point. He'll stay at the Leaky Cauldron until the end of the holidays, and Ministry agents will escort him to King's Cross on September the 1st. Arthur Weasley volunteered to accompany him as well.

          Tell me, Severus, is this Murphy's Law the modern version of Lugubris' Principle? I first heard the term a few years ago from Gabriella Wedge, that transfer student from United States—I'm sure you remember her, she was in your House. When I asked her why the Giant Squid had been enlarged fifteen times its size and caused the lake to overflow after she had spent a chilly autumn night swimming in its waters, she told me that was a typical case of Murphy's Law making itself noted. As she quoted it for me—'Anything that can go wrong, will'—I couldn't help remembering my former Divination teacher, Professor Hardy Lugubris. He used to say, 'If there's any room for tragedy, it will take place unequivocally'.

          I've always considered Lugubris' Principle a good reminder that terrible accidents might indeed happen if we don't take precautions to avoid them. If the natural tendency of things is (arguably) to go wrong, then we shall keep our eyes open, predict where they're most likely to go wrong and be careful. 'Constant vigilance!' as dear Alastor Moody always advocates.

          However, when taken too literally, Lugubris' Principle sounds like an excuse not to live. If everything will irremediably go wrong, why bother trying?

          It is sad enough when someone starts cultivating this line of thought regarding his own existence. But when this argument is used to dismiss someone else's life... That was basically what Ministry Secretary Nathan Shrubb was implying thirty years ago when he began his campaign to approve a law decreeing euthanasia for all victims of lycanthropy. He presumed a werewolf had nothing to offer the community but illness and death, so they should all be 'mercifully saved from their misery and the misery they cause to others' as soon as the disease was diagnosed. Thankfully, the wizarding community rejected this measure—probably more because of Shrubb's loss of credibility after being photographed by the Daily Prophet in the act of bribing the head of the Department for the Regulation and Control of Magical Creatures than for anything else, but it was still a good thing. Otherwise, Remus Lupin, excellent student, skilful wizard, qualified teacher, good-hearted man, would have been veritably hindered from offering anything good to our society.

          In fact, whenever Lugubris or this Murphy are mentioned, I immediately think of you to convince myself that their "laws", amusing as they are, do not apply to reality. Just think of where you were twelve years ago, Severus, and what we were facing. We could take a lifetime to list all the things that could have gone wrong then; but there you are, alive, safe and sound, working on what you're best at and enjoying your well-deserved holiday from your professorship at Hogwarts. You made it, Severus, when all odds seemed against you. But then, if you managed to break Murphy's Law, that is hardly a surprise, is it? Lawbreaking IS one of the classical traits of the House of Slytherin.

          I understand your fears towards Remus' presence in the school. It is true that an accident might still happen in spite of all our efforts to prevent it. However, I do feel we need to take the risk. Black is a real, dangerous threat. We don't know what he's capable of, what his motivations are, or what is his mental condition. And not only we have to keep Black away from Harry, but we'll have to keep Harry from going after Black if the boy ever learns about the extent of his godfather's crimes.

          Your concern about Harry's insomnia is a valid one. In this he is remarkably like his father and his father's friends... and his father's main rival too. Sometimes it feels like we've gone back in time. Even Minerva, who blames you and James Potter for many of her white hairs, confesses she feels a bit of nostalgia when witnessing Harry and Draco Malfoy's glaring contests in the Great Hall. Minerva was also the first to point out that Remus, with his own vast experience of being insomniac in Hogwarts and knowing the castle's secret passages as well as Black does, is the perfect choice to keep an eye on Harry. And knowing you, I'm sure the Wolfsbane Potion will be concocted with absolute care and that you'll make sure the patient takes the right dosage at the right time.

          I would not, especially under these circumstances, have Remus hired to teach the students if I had any doubts of his character. I am positive he wasn't involved in any way with Black's betrayal. The news of his former friend's escapade from Azkaban has upset him immensely and persuading him to accept the job was so difficult that for a moment I thought I would fail. As for the rumours you mentioned, I cannot confirm or deny them, and I don't think we should concern ourselves with that; if we were to condemn every wizard and witch that have let their hormones lead them to questionable associations in their youth, Azkaban would be a terribly crowded place.

          I won't try to dissuade you from carrying silver with you; I just pray you won't find it necessary in any occasion. But I ask you to refrain from wearing any rings containing that metal. I noticed Remus still has a small scar in the palm of his right hand. You're not sixteen anymore, Severus.

          Sybill has returned from her research trip to Bermuda last night. She told me that in her last reading of bird entrails she saw herself being very disappointed with you, so she asked me to remind you of the magnetite crystals you were, according to her, supposed to bring her. Sybill is afraid you might forget them.

          Please let me know as soon as possible when you'll be back. I wish to schedule a meeting with the Heads of the four Houses before the beginning of the term.

          Take good care of yourself and have a safe journey back,

-----------------------------
written by Morgan D.
January 6th, 2003

The Harry Potter series and its characters belong to J.K. Rowling, Bloomsbury, Warner Bros and Merlin-knows-whom-else.
Gabriella Wedge, Franz Neil Gyunnum, Hardy Lugubris and Nathan Shrubb are mine, but they're available to anyone who might find them any use.
The scientific name of the Wolfsbane Potion, Lupi Contra Mentem, belongs to Teka Lynn, but feel free to use it in your own fanfiction; you have her permission.
Murphy's Law is named after US Air Force Captain Edward A. Murphy, but its most common phrasing, "Anything that can go wrong, will", was coined by Larry Niven in his novels, where he presented it as "Finagle's Law of Dynamic Negatives". You can find more about the origin of Murphy's Law at http://www.murphys-laws.com
It's common knowledge that Madam Rowling's accuracy regarding dates leaves a lot to be desired. According to Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, the month of August had only three weeks in 1993. Therefore it was impossible to apply much verisimilitude to the dates and moon phases mentioned in this letter.